We haven’t looked at the Tucson Arizona housing market in quite a while. Most recent statistics (as of September 2009) shows active inventory was 6114, a 23% decrease from September 2008. There were 927 closings in September 2009, a 1% increase from September 2008. Months of Inventory were 6.6, down from 8.6 in September 2008. Median price of sold homes was $164,900 for the month of September 2009, down 8% from September 2008. Tucson is experiencing a significant increase in buyer activity, with new properties under contract up 74% from September 2008.

 

What do all these statistics mean? From the charts, it is clear that more houses are selling but selling at lower prices. LifePast50.ca recently posted overall USA house price trends from the Standard & Poors Case Shiller report that shows prices across the country are starting to flatten on a month to month basis versus year- to- year comparisons where   prices are still declining. As well, the charts indicate that in Tucson, inventory (houses for sale) have increased slightly in August and September.

 

So is now the time to buy? Consider the following:

1) Clearly US prices are flattening and although they may continue to fall, they’re not going down much further, if at all.

2) Mortgage rates are likely at the bottom. In Canada, the Central Bank has held rates steady yet the charter banks that loan out mortgage $ have actually increased their mortgage rates slightly. Mortgage rates have nowhere to go but up.

3) Although foreclosure rates (in the USA) remain stubbornly high, foreclosures don’t seem to have the negative impact on prices they did one or two years ago. 

4) The talking financial heads are telling us the economy is on its way back. If that is true, housing prices will start to climb again.

5) New home construction starts are at a fraction of the rates earlier this decade thereby lowering the supply of new homes.

6) Looking ahead a few more years, the demographics point to more people retiring and increasing demand for “a place in the sun”.

 

Form your own conclusions to answer the question “is now the time to buy” considering that demand may soon outweigh supply and borrowing costs won’t get any cheaper